Well, it’s more than 4 months since Russia invaded Donbas region – Luhansk and Donetsk towns. The true reason of the war is unknown, many reasons emerge when we dig deeper in to the crisis. If we analyze the hidden intensions on each stake holder’s view, we may end up with few in the process:
- US and EU campaign with Ukraine to enter NATO and establish a strong military base, to threaten Russia.
- Ukraine’s intension to move away from complete Russian endeavours to establish total control over the region. While Russian pressure was built partly in the Eastern region, where the people are guarded by Russia backed extremists prior to 24th February in the region.
- Russian intensions to take complete control of the Eastern region in order to establish a) free movement to Crimea, Russian annexed region in 2014, b) take control of the important port, Mariupol and the Black Sea region enclosed by Russia, Ukraine and Crimea c) ward off US and NATO forces establishing a base in Ukraine to safeguard Russian interests.
- US intension to weaken Russia, slowly and steadily becoming a threat to US domination in the world.
Ukraine wanted to join NATO against the wish of Russia, who was consistently warning to Ukraine. Their president Volodymyr Zelenskyy assured help by NATO in the event of an invasion by Russia was completely ignorant and further, Zelenskyy listened to US and UK on this issue during the course. Events transpired after Russian invasion, claimed by them as selective military operation, was completely different and had gone against the interests of Ukraine and it’s people. Thousands of people died and millions dislocated / relocated as of today.
European Union stand was slightly softer in nature on the invasion, compared with US and their allies. The reason being their dependency on Russia for 40% of Gas and 26% oil needs. This was evident through John Waltiwanger of Associated Press through their publication dated 16.06.2022. The news coverage elaborates on the visits by state heads of France, Germany, Italy and Romania. French Leader openly advised not to degrade Putin and went to meet Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Macron warned Europe, not to give into temptation of humiliation to Putin and advised to look to build exit ramp with Putin through diplomatic means.
During their interactions, the body language weren’t supportive of the claim. None of the European countries were able to ban their imports with immediate effect, in spite of people’s bleeding in Ukraine. They however assured to taper off the purchases in due course.
US imposed immediate sanctions on Russia and they in turn started to repulse the same through counter measures. Russia immediately imposed to European importers to pay in Russian Roubles rather than USD. Russia even threatened few European countries to stop the shipments if they don’t pay in Roubles. This move by Russia made their currency a strongest performing currency against the USD in the world post invasion. Russia offered oil with huge discounts to India and China, to ward off the US sanctions. This discounted oil payments were agreed for Russian Rouble / importers local currencies. This truly left the West fuming over the deal and started to pester India not to import and initiating wrong campaign against India.
News publication dated 17.06.22 through The Print news magazine, India’s decision to buy Russian oil through Rubble/Rupee payment as Rubble wise Rupee foolish and further states that India bloodied her hands in the process. It says Russia was selling oil at 10 Mbpd prior to the war, while post war it is 8 Mbpd mainly sourced by Asian countries. How blunt it is? While Europe buys 26% of its oil and 40% of Gas from Russia and it is yet to ban the purchase, but the print media says Europe is buying only 2 Mbpd. These actions by Russia made their currency quite stronger against USD, while the rest of the global currencies are getting weaker. At one point of time in February Russian Rouble was at 200/USD now the same is valued at 53/USD, making it amazing transformation to Russia. While Russia countered the US sanctions quite strongly, Ukraine continues to beg for financial aid and the weapons to counter Russian troops. US and allies are sanctioning aid intermittently, US has sanctioned USD 50 Billion from its side. Ukraine’s latest claims for the funds stand at USD 750 Billion to completely rebuild the country.
While we notice i) sanctions by US and its allies ii) weapon supports from NATO and West iii) financial aid packages from different sources, we fail to notice the containment of Russian forces in the war or see the benefits reach the Ukraine population. What an irony?
In early June Russia has claimed to have taken 97% of Donbas region and were in full control of Southern towns of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Russia intends to annexe these two towns with Crimea. Train and Bus services started from 1.07.2022 and Russia wish to go for referendum in these regions.
Russian strong $ 1.8 Trillion Economy is in a better position to continue the war. Russia runs a current account surplus of $110 bn against $32bn same period last year. A drop in the import had shielded the currency form broader sell off. Russia’s central bank cut its interest rate to the pre-crisis level of 9.5% on this 10th June. Oil economy shielding Russia form any down slide as projected by the Western Powers. Crude was trading at around $ 75.00 and increased to $ 112.99 on 27.06.2022. Russia is earning more money today than the war before. This war is windfall to the entire oil producing countries, while the ones import the same are bleeding.
We can only pray God to save people of Ukraine from further as early as possible.
Kumaraguruparan Krishna 